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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2021 Say: 20 Alan: Makro ktisat

Burcu KILIN SAVRUL, Tahir AKBUDAK
TRKYEDE REEL FAZLERN NET PORTFY YATIRIMLAR ZERNDEK ETKS
 
Ekonomik byme ve ekonomik kalknmay gerekletirebilmek, yoksulluk ve isizlik sorununu ortadan kaldrarak yeni i sahalar oluturabilmek ve dk igc fiyatlarn artrabilmek iin yeterli sermayenin olmamas zellikle gelimekte olan lkelerde yabanc sermayeye duyulan ihtiyac artrmtr. Gelimekte olan lkeler arasnda yer alan Trkiyede yabanc sermayedar ekmek iin zellikle 1980li yllardan itibaren ciddi admlar atlmtr. 1989 sermaye hareketlerinin serbestlemesi ile beraber Trkiyeye ynelik yaplan yabanc yatrmlarn trnde de deiiklikler meydana gelmitir. Bu tarihten nce daha ok dorudan yatrm eklinde gerekletirilen yatrmlar bu yldan itibaren daha ok portfy yatrmlar eklinde gereklemektedir. Dier taraftan yabanc sermayedarn Trkiyeyi tercih etmesinde birden ok parametre etkili olmaktadr. almann amac bu parametrelerden biri olan reel faiz orannn portfy yatrmlar zerindeki etkisini ortaya koymaktr.Bu dorultuda 1989-2020 yllar arasn kapsayan dnemde Trkiyede reel faizlerin net yabanc portfy yatrmlar zerindeki ksa ve uzun dnemdeki etkisini belirlemek iin ARDL snr testi yaplmtr. Analiz sonucunda ilgili deikenler arasnda ksa dnemde anlaml ve negatif bir ilikinin varl, uzun dnemde ise anlaml ve pozitif bir ilikinin varlna ulalmtr. Ayrca analizde kontrol deiken olarak kullanlan devlet bte aklar ile net portfy yatrmlar arasnda negatif bir iliki olduu bulgulara ulalmtr. Tm bunlara ek olarak analizde Trkiyede ekonomik krizin yaand dnemlerde ciddi yabanc sermaye k olduu gzlenmitir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Reel Faiz, Net Yabanc Portfy Yatrmlar, ARDL Snr Testi, Ekonomik Byme


THE EFFECT OF REAL INTEREST RATES IN TURKEY ON NET PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS
 
Lack of sufficient capital for adequacy for economic growth and economic development, to create new business areas by eliminating the problem of poverty and unemployment and to increase low labor prices, has increased the need for foreign capital, especially in developing countries. In Turkey, which is among the developing countries, serious steps have been taken especially since the 1980s to attract foreign investors. With the liberalization of capital movements in 1989, changes have also occurred in the type of foreign investments made in Turkey. Investments made mostly in the form of direct investments before this date have been realized as portfolio investments since this year. On the other hand, more than one parameter became effective for foreign investors to prefer Turkey. The aim of the study is to reveal the effect of real interest rate, which is one of these parameters, on net foreign capital. Accordingly, in the period between 1989-2020, ARDL boundary test was conducted in Turkey to determine the short and long term effects of real interest on net foreign portfolio investments. As a result of the analysis, the existence of a significant and negative relationship between the relevant variables in the short term and the existence of a significant and positive relationship in the long term was reached out. In addition, it was found that there is a negative relationship between government budget deficits, which are used as control variables, and net portfolio investments. In addition to all these, in the analysis, it was observed that Turkey had a serious outflow of foreign capital during the economic crisis.

Keywords: Real Interest, Net Foreign Portfolio Investments, ARDL Bound Test, Economic Growth


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