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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2022 Say: 21 Alan: Ampirik ktisat

K. Batu TUNAY, Necla TUNAY
TRKYEDE MLL PARADAN KAI, DOLAIM HIZI OKLARI VE HPERENFLASYON OLASILII: DENEYSEL BR ANALZ
 
Bu almada, 2017 sonrasnda artan enflasyonist basklar ve gl bir para ikamesi sreci yaanan Trkiyede hiperenflasyon yaanma olasl deneysel olarak aratrlmaktadr. Cagann (1956) hiperenflasyon konusundaki nermeleri temel alnm, olumsuz enflasyon beklentilerinin milli paradan ka ve dolam hzn arttrd varsaylarak enflasyon srecinin dinamikleri analiz edilmitir. Beklentilerin rasyonel olduu varsaym altnda, para talebi fonksiyonu, dolam hz fonksiyonu ve fiyat denkleminin parametreleri en yksek olabilirlik tahmincisi kullanlarak tahmin edilmitir. Sonular, beklenen enflasyonun reel para talebini negatif ve gl bir ekilde etkilediini gstermitir. Enflasyon oran arttka, milli paradan ka veya para ikamesi hzlanmaktadr. Enflasyonist basklar arttndan, kur hareketleri dolam hzn faiz oranlarndan daha fazla uyarmaktadr. Milli parann deer saklama ilevi nemli oranda dmtr. Sre bu hzyla devam ettike, hiperenflasyon olasl zamanla artacaktr.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Para talebi, para ikamesi, hiperenflasyon, en yksek olabilirlik tahmincisi


ESCAPE FROM NATIONAL CURRENCY, VELOCITY SHOCKS AND HYPERINFLATION PROBABILITY IN TURKEY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
 
In this study, the possibility of hyperinflation in Turkey, which has been experiencing increasing inflationary pressures and a strong currency substitution process after 2017, is empirically investigated. Based on Cagan's (1956) postulates on hyperinflation, the dynamics of the inflation process is analyzed, assuming that negative inflation expectations increase the velocity of money and the flight from the national currency. Under the assumption that the expectations are rational, the parameters of the money demand function, the velocity of money function and the price equation are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimator. The results show that expected inflation affects real money demand negatively and strongly. As inflation rate increases, the flight from national currency or currency substitution accelerates. Due to increasing inflationary pressures, exchange rate movements stimulate the velocity of money more than interest rates. The store of value function of the national currency has decreased significantly. As the process continues at this pace, the probability of hyperinflation will increase over time.

Keywords: Money demand, currency substitution, hyperinflation, maximum likelihood estimator


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