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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2022 Say: 21 Alan: Ampirik ktisat

M. Sait AKIR, Resul AYDEMR
TEDARK ZNCRLER KESNTLER, ETSZLK OKLARI VE KURUMSAL YENLKLERN GELMEKTE OLAN LKELERDE SANAYLEME HIZINA ETKLER: PANEL VAR ANALZ
 
Bu almamzda tedarik zincirleri kesintileri, eitsizlik oklar ve kurumsal yeniliklerin gelimekte olan lkelerin sanayileme hzna etkilerini panel VAR modeli ile incelemekteyiz. Bulgularmza gre gelir blmndeki bozulma gelimekte olan lkelerin sanayileme abalarna zarar verirken kurumsal faktrlerdeki iyilemeler bu abalar gl klmaktadr. Dier yandan, tedarik zinciri kesintilerinin sanayileme zerindeki etkisi dorusal olmayan bir patika izlemektedir; bu da yerel endstrilerin ithal girdi darboazlarn aramal ithal ikamesi yoluyla massedebildiini gstermektedir. Kresel deer zincirlerine geriden katlm ile dzenleyici kurumsal nitelikler arasnda herhangi bir Granger-nedensellik ilikisinin bulunmamas literatrde sklkla ilenen ynetiimsel iyilemelerin deer zincirlerine katlm destekleyeceine dair tezin gelimekte olan lke balamnda geerli olmayabileceini gstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: tedarik zincirleri, Kuznets erisi, sanayileme, kurumlar, panel VAR modeli


THE EFFECTS OF SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS, INEQUALITY SHOCKS, AND INSTITUTIONAL INNOVATIONS ON THE PACE OF INDUSTRIALIZATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A PANEL VAR ANALYSIS
 
We empirically examine the effects of supply chain disruptions, inequality shocks, and institutional innovations on the pace of industrialization in developing countries by running a panel vector autoregressive model. We found that deterioration in income distribution unequivocally harms the developing countries bid for industrialization while better institutions proxied by an improvement regulatory quality invariably foster it. On the other hand, the effects of supply chain disruptions on the pace of industrialization follow a nonlinear path, showing the great resilience of local industries in absorbing imported input bottlenecks through intermediate input import substitution. We also provide evidence that backward participation into GVCs and regulatory quality do not mutually Granger-cause each other, and suggest that the well-established link from better governance to GVCs may be missing in the developing country case

Keywords: supply chains, Kuznets curve, industrialization, institutions, panel VAR


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