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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2021 Say: 20 Alan: Ampirik ktisat

Onur YAI, Burcu KILIN SAVRUL
ORTA AVRUPA VE BALTIK LKELERNDE TEMEL MAKRO EKONOMK DEKENLERN SZLK ZERNDEK ETKLER: PANEL VER ANALZ
 
almada, dnya bankasnda yer alan orta Avrupa ve Baltk lkelerinde ekonomik byme, cari ilemler dengesi, sanayi retimi ve gayri safi yurtii tasarruf gibi temel makro ekonomik deikenlerin isizlik zerindeki etkileri incelenmitir. almada 1997-2018 dnemine ait yllk veriler kullanlmtr. Analiz panel metodu ile gerekletirilmitir. Bu yolla isizliin azaltlmas iin hangi deikenlerin yol gsterici olacann tespitini amalamaktadr. Seriler arasndaki uzun dnemli ilikinin varl Westerlung Edgerton (2007) LM bootstrap testiyle incelenmi, birden fazla krlmay ele alan Westerlung Edgerton (2006) multiple break ile krlma tarihleri belirlenmitir. Daha sonra uzun dnem katsaylarn tahmin etmek iin uzun dnem regresyon katsaylar AMG 2009 yntemi kullanlmtr. Ekonomik byme, cari ilemler dengesi, sanayi retimi ve gayri safi yurtii tasarruf deikenlerinin isizlie etkileri incelendiinde ekonomik bymenin ve enflasyonun negatif, cari ilemler dengesinin pozitif istatistiki olarak anlaml etkilerinin olduu grlmtr.

Anahtar Kelimeler: sizlik, Ekonomik Byme, Cari lemler Dengesi, Sanayi retimi, Gayri Safi Yurtii Tasarruf, Panel Veri Analizi


THE EFFECTS OF KEY MACRO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES ON UNEMPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL EUROPE AND THE BALTIC COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS
 
In this study, it can get good results in the European and Baltic economy, macroeconomically for Lithuania, Lithuania, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia and macroeconomically for Latvia; economic growth, industrial and gross current traffic, those affected by the effects of those affected by the world, were observed negatively from the effect area of the panel, which was affected by height. on this road, it plans to determine which candidates' road model for unemployment. Stationarity of the series; With the Hadri-Kurumi (2012) test, the second-class root test that includes the view from the view section and its useful eyes. The LM bots of cointegration Westerlung Edgerton (2007) Westerlung Edgerton (2007) Westerlung Edgerton (2006) have been studied with multiple refraction with multiple products. Then, the period regression coefficients AMG 2009 (Augmented Average Group estimation, Augmented Mean Group estimator) method was used to estimate the long-term coefficients. I see that the negative effects of economic growth and inflammation and the positive effects of automobile manufacturers are seen from the effects of growth, automobile industry industry and industrial and safe economic developments.

Keywords: Unemployment, Economic Growth, Current Account Balance, Industrial Production, Gross Domestic Savings, Panel Data Analysis


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