TR
Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2015 Say: 2 Alan: Ampirik ktisat

Funda H. Sezgin, Nesli Nazik zkan
TRK?YE ??N DO?RUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARIN DEMELER B?LANOSUNA ETK?LER?: EKONOMETR?K ANAL?Z
 
Trkiyenin bugne kadar yeterince yararlanamad dorudan yabanc yatrmlar (DDY), ekonominin kresel dzeyde rekabet edebilen bir yapya dnmnde etkili rol oynamaktadr. zellikle, 2001 sonras dnemde yatrm ortamnn iyiletirilmesine ve yeni retim kapasitesi yaratmaya dnk abalara ramen DYY iin beklenen dzeyde bir gelime olumamtr. Trkiye gibi bir taraftan gelimekte olan dier taraftan yksek cari ilemler a sorunuyla ba etmekle uraan lkeler iin cari an finansmannda DYY neminin analizi gelitirilecek politikalar asndan nemlidir. almada, 1998.Q1- 2013.Q4 dnemini kapsayan er aylk cari ilemler dengesi verileri ile DYY, Trkiye GSYH, AB lkeleri GSYH, reel faiz oranlar (RFO), reel efektif dviz kuru (REDK) deikenleri arasnda hem uzun dnem hem de ksa dnem ilikiler belirlenmitir. Cari ak zerinde REDK, GSYH_AB, RFO deikenleri arttrc ynde anlaml iken, GSYH_TR ve DYY azaltc ynde etkili bulunmutur.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Dorudan Yabanc Yatrm, Cari lemler Dengesi, Ebtnleme Analizi, Deitirilmi En Kk Kareler Yntemi , Kanonik Ebtnleme Regresyonu , Dinamik En Kk Kareler Yntemi


EFFECT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON BALANCE OF PAYMENT FOR TURKEY: ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
 
Foreign direct investment (FDI) that which Turkey has not been able to benefit from so far has an effective role in the conversion of the economy to have a competitive structure at the global level. Especially in the period after 2001, in spite of the efforts to improve the investment environment and to create new production capacity, the development was not at the expected level. To improve new FDI policies is significant for developing countries (like Turkey) which on the one hand continue to develop on the other hand have to cope with high current account deficit issues. In this study, it has tried to reveal short and long term relationships between 1998.Q1- 2013.Q4 current account deficit figures and FDI, GDP for Turkey, GDP for EU, Real Interest Rate (RFO), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REDK) variables. As a result, while REDK, GDP_AB, RFO have positive effect on current account deficient, GDP_TR and DYY have negative effect on it.

Keywords: Foreign direct investment, Balance of Payments, Current Account Balance, Cointegration Analysis, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares , Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares, Canonical Cointegrating Regress


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