TR
Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2021 Say: 18 Alan: Ampirik ktisat

Merter MERT , nder BALCI
TRKYEDE NFUS ARTI HIZI LE K BAINA GSYH LKS: 1924-2018 nl
 
Bu almada, Trkiyede 1924-2018 dneminde nfus art hzndaki deiimin kii bana gelir zerindeki uzun dnemli etkisi, vektr hata dzeltme modeli kullanlarak incelenmitir. almann birinci bulgusuna gre, Trkiyede 1924-2018 dneminde nfus art hz ile kii bana gelir arasnda uzun dnemli bir iliki bulunmaktadr. almann ikinci bulgusuna gre, dier deikenler sabitken, Trkiyede nfus art hz 0,01 puan ykseldiinde, uzun dnemdeki kii bana gelir 2.083 (20 yllk gecikme) veya 4.466 (19 yllk gecikme) dolar artmaktadr. Maddi refahn veya hayat standartlarnn kii bana gelir ile lld koullarda bu bulgu, Trkiyede nfus art hznn hayat standartlar zerinde pozitif ynl bir etkide bulunduunu gstermektedir. Trkiyede ilgili dnemde, nfus bymesinin pozitif ynl etkileri negatif ynl etkilerine baskn kmtr. almann nc bulgusuna gre, Trkiyede nfus artnn kii bana gelir zerindeki uzun dnemli pozitif etkisi 20 veya 19 yllk bir gecikme sonucunda ortaya kmaktadr. Yaklak bir hesap yaplrsa nfus art hzndaki 0,01 puanlk art kii bana geliri yllk 2.083 dolar/20 = 104 dolar veya 4.466 dolar/19 = 235 dolar arttrmaktadr. almada bu bulgularn anlam tartlmtr.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Kalknma, Byme, Nfus, Demografi, Trkiye ktisat Tarihi


THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RATE OF GROWTH OF POPULATION AND PER CAPITA GDP IN TURKEY: 1924-2018
 
In this study, using a vector error correction model, the impact of a change in the rate of growth of population on the per capita GDP has been investigated for Turkey over the period 1924-2018. According to the first finding of the study, there is a long-term relationship between per capita GDP and rate of growth of population during the period 1924-2018. According to the second finding of the study, ceteris paribus, if rate of growth of population increases 0.01 points in Turkey, per capita GDP will increase 2.083 dollars (20-year-lag) or 4.466 dollars (19-year-lag) in the long term. Thus, an increase in the rate of growth of population has a positive impact on living standards in Turkey. In the relevant period, positive effects of population growth dominate negative effects of it in Turkey. According to the third finding of the study, long-term positive effect of rate of growth of population on per capita GDP in Turkey is emerging as a result of a twenty-year-lag or nineteen-year-lag. If an approximate calculation is made, a 0.01 point increase in the rate of growth of population increases per capita GDP by 2,083 dollars/20 = 104 dollars or 4,466 dollars/19 = 235 dollars, annually. The meaning of these findings is discussed in the study.

Keywords: Development, Growth, Population, Demography, Economic History of Turkey


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