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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2021 Say: 18 Alan: Ekonometri

K. Batu TUNAY, Necla TUNAY
YKSELEN EKONOMLERN PETROL OKLARINA MAKRO EKONOMK TEPKLER
 
In this study, the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks in emerging economies that are foreign dependence in oil and in the middle upper income group are examined. China, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey consisting of a sample has been analyzing during the 1999-2019 period and annual data are used in the analyses. In the analysis made with the Panel SVAR method, the reactions of economic growth, inflation rate, budget balance change rate and current account balance change rate to the oil price shock were investigated. The findings show that international oil price shocks trigger macroeconomic shocks in emerging economies and may have deep and lasting effects due to strong interactions between the basic macroeconomic variables.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Emerging market economies, oil shocks, macroeconomic vulnerabilities, P-SVAR models.


MACROECONOMIC RESPONSES OF EMERGING ECONOMIES TO OIL SHOCKS
 
Bu almada petrolde da baml orta st gelir grubundaki ykselen ekonomilerde petrol oklarnn makro ekonomik etkileri incelenmitir. in, Endonezya, Gney Afrika ve Trkiyeden oluan bir rneklem analiz edilmi ve 1999-2019 dneminde yllk veriler kullanlmtr. Panel SVAR yntemiyle yaplan analizlerde, ekonomik byme, enflasyon oran, bte dengesi ve cari dengenin deiim oranlarnn petrol fiyat okuna tepkileri aratrlmtr. Elde edilen bulgular, d kaynakl petrol fiyat oklarnn ykselen ekonomilerde makro ekonomik oklar tetikledii ve deikenler arasndaki gl karlkl etkileimler nedeniyle derin ve kalc etkiler dourabileceini gstermektedir.

Keywords: Ykselen ekonomiler, petrol oklar, makro ekonomik krlganlklar,P-SVAR modelleri


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