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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2020 Say: 17 Alan: Makro ktisat

Hlya ALIKAN KESC
G-7 LKELERNDE SZLK HSTERS N BR ANALZ
 
Bu almann temel amac, G7 lkeleri iin 1984-2019 dnemi iin zaman serisi ekonometrisi teknikleri kullanlarak, G7 lkelerinde toplam isizlik oran deikeninde Histeri etkisinin olup olmad test etmektir. sizlik orannda histeri etkisinin olup olmad, isizlik oran deikenin duraanl test edilerek ortaya konulmutur. Birim kk test sonularna gre G7 lkelerinde isizlikte histeri etkisinin var olduu sonucuna ulalmtr. Bu balamda, isizlik oran deikeni iin karlalan oklarn doal isizlik orannda kalc etkilere yol at, isizlik oran deikenin zamana gre deien bir ortalama etrafnda duraan olmayan bir seyir izledii sonucuna ulalmaktadr.

Anahtar Kelimeler: G7 lkeleri, sizlik, Histeri etkisi


AN ANALYSIS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS IN G7 COUNTRIES
 
The main purpose of this study is to test whether there is a Hysteresis effect on the total unemployment rate variable in G7 countries by using time series econometric techniques for the 1984-2019 period for the G7 countries. Whether there is a hysterical effect on the unemployment rate or not has been revealed by testing the stability of the unemployment rate variable. According to the unit root test results, it was concluded that there is a hysteria effect in unemployment in G7 countries. In this context, it is concluded that the shocks encountered for the unemployment rate variable have permanent effects on the natural unemployment rate, and the unemployment rate variable follows a non-stationary course around an average that changes according to time.

Keywords: G7 countries, Unemployment, Hysteresis effect


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