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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2019 Say: 14 Alan: Nicel Karar Yntemleri

Funda H. SEZGN
DI TCARET HACM VE EKONOMK BYME LKS:PANEL VER ANALZ
 
Gnmzde d ticaret, lkelerin kalknmalarnn srdrlmesinde ve dnya lkeleriyle btnlemenin salanmasnda en nemli unsurlardan biri olarak grlmektedir. zellikle, lkelerin ekonomik kalknma srecinde, i dinamikleri harekete geiren d ticaretin rol ok fazladr. Kresellemenin frsatlarndan yararlanmak isteyen az gelimi ve gelimekte olan lkeler, d ticaret yoluyla nemli kazanmlar elde etmeyi ve baarl byme performansna ulamay hedeflemektedir. lkeler, d ticaret politikalarn sadece dnya ekonomisine entegre olmak iin deil, ayn zamanda dier lke veya lke gruplaryla olan siyasal ilikilerine yn vermek iin de kullanmaktadr. Bu almann amac, benzer ekonomik sorunlar olan krlgan sekizli lkeleri iin 2000-2017 dnemine ynelik d ticaret hacmi (DTH) ve byme (GSYH) arasndaki ilikinin panel ebtnleme ve nedensellik analizi yardmyla belirlenmesidir. Analiz sonucunda, DTH ve GSYH arasnda uzun dnemli pozitif ilikinin varl sz konusudur. Yaplan nedensellik analizinde lke grubundaki tm lkeler iin DTH ve GSYH arasnda ift ynl nedensellik ilikisi belirlenmitir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: D ticaret hacmi, Byme, Panel ebtnleme, Panel nedensellik


THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN TRADE VOLUME AND ECONOMIC GROWTH:PANEL DATA ANALSIS
 
Today, foreign trade, the maintenance of the development of countries and countries in the world it is seen as one of the most important elements in the provision of integration. Particularly, in the economic development process of countries, the role of foreign trade in mobilizing internal dynamics is very much. Underdeveloped and developing countries, which want to benefit from the opportunities of globalization, aim to achieve significant gains through foreign trade and achieve successful growth performance. Countries use their foreign trade policies not only to integrate into the world economy, but also to direct their political relations with other country or country groups. The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between foreign trade volume (DTH) and growth (GDP) for the period of [2000.Q1-2017.Q4] for the fragile eighth countries with similar economic problems by means of panel cointegration and causality analysis. As a result of the analysis, there is a long-term positive relationship between DTH and GDP. In the causality analysis, bi-directional causality relationship was determined for all countries in the country group.

Keywords: Foreign trade volume, GDP, Panel cointegration analysis, Panel Causality analysis


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