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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2019 Say: 14 Alan: Finansal Ekonometri

Ayegl Erturul AYRANCI
FNANSAL BAARISIZLII ETKLEYEN FAKTRLERN BELRLENMESNDE WILLIAMS YNTEMNN ETKNL: BST SANAY LETMELER RNE
 
Gnmzde i dnyasnda ortaya kan hzl geliimler ve deiimler, gemie gre daha youn bir rekabete yol amaktadr. Rekabeti piyasa yaps sadece baarl iletmelere yaama ans verirken, yeni piyasa koullarna ayak uyduramayan iletmeleri ise finansal baarszlk veya iflas beklemektedir. Finansal baarszlk nedeniyle faaliyetlerine son veren bir iletme, mikro ynden yneticilerini, alanlarn ve rakiplerini, makro ynden ise kendi sektrn, yatrmclar, bankalar, kredi veren kurulular ve sonucunda lke ekonomisini olumsuz ynde etkileyecektir. Bu gerek, finansal baarszl belirlemeyi amalayan almalarn nemini net bir biimde ortaya koymaktadr. Finansal baarszl belirlemeye ynelik farkl yaklamlar bulunmaktadr. Lojistik regresyon analizi yaygn kullanlan yntemlerden biridir. Dier taraftan ar yaylm durumunda, model uyum istatistiklerine ve parametre tahminlerine ynelik gven yeterli olmadndan dolay, bu durumu dikkate alarak zm salayan Williams yntemi, zellikle yksek dzeyli deikenlik gsteren borsa verilerinin baarl ekilde snflanmasnda etkinlik salamaktadr. Bu almann amac, 2019.Q2 dneminde BSTde ilem gren sanayi iletmelerinde finansal baary etkileyen faktrleri, lojistik regresyon ve Williams yntemleri kullanarak tespit etmektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Finansal Baarszlk, Ar Yaylm, Lojistik Regresyon Analizi, Williams Yntemi


THE EFFECTIVENESS OF WILLIAMS METHOD IN DETERMINATION OF FACTORS AFFECTING FINANCIAL FAILURE: THE EXAMPLE OF BIST INDUSTRIAL BUSINESSES
 
Today, the rapid developments and changes in the business world give rise to more intense competition than the past. While competitive market structure provides chance of survival to successful businesses only, financial failure or bankruptcy wait for those that fail to keep up with new market conditions. A business that terminates its operations due to a financial failure will adversely affect its managers, employees and competitors in micro terms, and its sector, investors, banks, lending institutions and consequently the national economy in macro terms. This fact clearly demonstrates the importance of studies that aim to determine financial failure. There are different approaches towards determining financial failure. Logistic regression analysis is one of the widely used methods. On the other hand, as trust towards model fit statistics and parameter estimates is not adequate in case of an overdispersion, the Williams method that provides solution by taking this situation into account is particularly effective in classifying volatile stock market data. The aim of this study is to determine the factors that affect the financial success of industrial businesses traded in BIST within 2019.Q2 period using logistic regression and the Williams methods.

Keywords: Financial Failure, Overdispersion, Logistic Regression Analysis, Williams Method


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