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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2019 Say: 13 Alan: statistik-Saysal Yntemler-Ekonometri

Emine zdemir, Hicabi Ersoy
FNANSAL KRZLER TARH ve NC GSTERGELER NDEKSN ETKLEYEN FAKTRLERN ANALZ: TRKYE RNE
 
Gemiten gnmze kadar mikro ve makro boyutta pek ok ekonomik buhran meydana gelmitir. Finansal krizlerin says oaldka ve etkisi derinletike iktisatlar ve hkmetler ortak paydada birleip krizleri ngrlebilir klmaya almlar ve ok nemli sonular elde etmilerdir. Gnmze gelindiinde de krizler ngrlebilir hale getirilmitir. Buradan yola karak finansal krizler incelenmi sebep-sonu ilikilerine odaklanlmtr. Krizlerin gruplandrlmas ve modellemeleri hakknda aratrmalar yaplmtr. nc gstergeler indeksi alm yaplm, etkisi ve baars irdelenmitir. nc gstergeler indeksini etkileyen bamsz deikenler tespit edilmi; bu deikenlerin nc gstergeler indeksine olan etkisi aratrlm ve Trkiye modeli kurulmutur. almann amac kriz dnemlerinin nc gstergesi olan bileik nc gstergeler zerinde etkili olduu dnlen PMI, API, BTI ve tketici gven indekslerinin ilikilerinin belirlenmesidir. Hem i adamlar gr hem tketici grleri hem de finansal gidiatn durumu ile krizleri nclemede ne denli baarl olduu belirlenmeye allmtr.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Kriz, Finansal Krizler, nc Gstergeler ndeksi


HISTORY OF FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ANALYSIS OF FACTORS EFECTING INDEXES OF PRECURSOR INDICATORS
 
From the past to the present, many micro and macro-economic crises have occurred. As the number of financial crises that have occurred throughout history has grown and the impact has deepened, economists and governments have come together in the common denominator to try to make the crises predictable and have achieved very important results. Today, crises have become predictable. From this point of view, financial crises have been examined and focused on cause and effect relations. Researches on the grouping and modeling of crises were conducted. The index of leading indicators has been explained and its effect and success has been examined. The independent variables affecting the index of leading indicators were determined; these variables have investigated the effect of leading indicators index and the model of Turkey was founded. The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between PMI, API, BTI and consumer confidence indices, which are thought to be effective on compound leading indicators, which are the leading indicators of crisis periods. Both the views of businessmen, consumer opinions and the state of the financial course and the success of the crisis have been tried to determine how successful.

Keywords: Crisis, Financial Crises, Leading Economic Indicators Index


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