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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2019 Say: 13 Alan: statistik-Saysal Yntemler-Ekonometri

Hamadou Niangadou, Murat Akad
MALݒDEK SZLK ORANLARI N TEK DEKENL VE SEZGSEL TAHMN MODELLERNN KARILATIRILMASI
 
Malide isizlik, her dnemde olduu gibi bugn de nemli bir sorundur. Dnya Veri Atlasndan elde edilen verilerin kullanld bu almada, tek deikenli tahmin modelleri ile sezgisel tahmin modelleri kullanlarak, en dk hata orann veren ve dolaysyla gelecekteki isizlik rakamlarn olabildiince geree yakn tahmin eden tahmin modeli elde edilmeye allmtr. Sonular, tek deikenli tahmin teknikleri ile sezgisel tahmin teknikleri arasnda bir karlatrma yapmaya olanak salamaktadr.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Tek Deikenli Tahmin, Sezgisel Tahmin, Bootstrapping, Basitlik, Mali, sizlik


COMPARISON OF UNIVARIATE AND HEURISTIC FORECASTING MODELS IN THE EMPLOYMENT/UNEMPLOYMENT SECTOR IN MALI
 
Unemployment has always been a problem in Mali, as it is today. Using the actual data from the World Data Atlas data source, this study aims to perform a series of forecasting operations using some of the accepted univariate forecasting models in literature and a set of heuristic ones, so as to see which one will hold less error percentage, and thus give the best estimate on how the future numbers might look like. The results enable a comparison of univariate and heuristic techniques.

Keywords: Univariate Forecasting, Heuristic Forecasting, Bootstrapping, Parsimony, Mali, Unemployment


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