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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2019 Say: 12 Alan: statistik-Saysal Yntemler-Ekonometri

K. Batu Tunay, Necla Tunay
DI KAYNAKLI EKONOMK OKLARIN TRKYEDE PARA POLTKALARINA ETKLER: SVAR ANALZ
 
D kaynakl ekonomik oklar yurtii makroekonomik deikenlerde nemli dalgalanmalara yol aabilmektedir. zellikle ykselen ekonomilerde bu tr oklarn ok daha gl etkiler dourabildii gzlenmitir. Bu tespitler nda almada, Trkiyede dsal oklarn para politikalar zerindeki potansiyel etkilerinin analiz edilmesi amalanmtr. Basit bir Yeni Keynesyen model erevesinde, 1987:2 ile 2018:2 dnemi er aylk verilerini kapsayan bir rneklem yapsal vektr ardk balanm (SVAR) modeli ile analiz edilmitir. Yaplan modellemede, byme ve enflasyon oran balca hedef deikenler ve TCMB politika oran da balca ara deiken olarak ayn baml deikenler vektr iinde tanmlanmtr. Elde edilen bulgular, byme ve enflasyonun gl karlkl ilikileri olduunu gstermektedir. Ekonominin mevcut yapsal koullar nedeniyle olas oklara faiz oran yoluyla yaplacak mdahalelerin etkinlii dk olacaktr. Bu nedenle oklarn derin ve kalc etkiler dourmas olasl yksektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: D oklar, para politikas, faiz oran, SVAR modelleri.


THE EFFECTS OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS TO MONETARY POLICIES IN TURKEY: SVAR ANALYSIS
 
External economic shocks can cause significant fluctuations in domestic macroeconomic variables. Especially in emerging economies, such shocks can have stronger effects. In the context of these assessments, the study is aimed to analyze the potential impact of external shocks on monetary policy in Turkey. Within the framework of a simple New Keynesian model, a sample covering the quarterly data for the period between 1987: 2 and 2018: 2 was analyzed with the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. In the modeling, growth and inflation rates as the main target variables and central bank policy rate as main intrument variable are defined in the same dependent variables vector. Findings show that growth and inflation have strong reciprocal relations. Due to the existing structural conditions of the economy, the effectiveness of the interventions to be made through the interest rate to the possible shocks will be low. Therefore, shocks are likely to have strong and persistence effects.

Keywords: External shocks, monetary policy, interest rate, SVAR model.


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