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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2018 Say: 10 Alan: Ekonometri

Ece ERKAN, Rahmi YAMAK
NTHAR VAKALARINDAK MEVSMSELLN YAPISI VE BOYUTU: TRKYE RNE
 
ntihar vakalarnda mevsimsel deiimlerin anlaml bir etkiye sahip olup olmad, eer mevsimsel bir etki mevcutsa intiharn yln hangi dnemlerinde art hangi dnemlerinde azal eiliminde olduu birok aratrmac tarafndan uzun zamandr merak edilen ve aratrlan bir konu olmutur. Bireylerin intihar nedenlerini ortaya koymadan nce genel olarak intihar davranlarnn dnemsel seyirlerinin incelenmesi ve bir emasnn kartlmas alt faktrlerin tespitinde olduka nemlidir. Bu kapsamda almann amac, 2000-2016 dnemi aylk intihar vakas verilerini kullanarak Trkiyedeki intihar eylemlerinin mevsimsel bir bileen ierip iermediini, ieriyor ise boyutu ve yapsnn ne olduunu ileri zaman serisi teknikleriyle aratrmaktr. Ayrca almada cinsiyet farkllklar dikkate alnmtr. Dnyada sz konusu konuyu aratran birok alma mevcutken lkemiz iin ileri zaman serisi teknikleri kullanlarak mevsimsel etiklerin incelendii almalar yok denecek kadar azdr. Bu bakmdan sz konusu almann literatre olduka katk salayaca dnlmektedir. Elde edilen bulgulara gre Trkiyede intihar vakalar deterministik mevsimsel bir sre iermektedir. Mevsimsel dalga boylar incelendiinde birbirlerine olduka yakn ve sabit olduu grlmtr. Teorik beklentinin aksine intihar vakalar serisinin toplamsal olarak olutuu bulgusuna ulalmtr. lkemizde insanlar daha ok ilkbahar-yaz aylarnda intihar etmektedir. Bu bulgu literatrde olduka stnde durulan ilkbahar-yaz zirvesi ile rtmektedir. ntihar vakalar says kadnlarda haziran, erkeklerde ise temmuz aylarnda zirveye ulamaktadr. Yl balarnda ve sonlarnda ise intihar vaka saysnda bir d gereklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: ntihar, Mevsimsellik, Deterministik, Census X-12


STRUCTURE AND DIMENSION OF SEASONALITY IN SUICIDE CASES: THE CASE OF TURKEY
 
Many researchers have investigated for a long time whether seasonal changes have an effect on the suicide cases. If there is a seasonal effect, they have researched on which periods of the year suicide cases decrease or increase. Before determining the causes of suicide attempts of individuals, investigating the periodic course of suicidal behaviours generally and making a scheme are quite important to detect the underlying factors of suicide. In this context, the purpose of this study is to investigate whether the suicidal behaviours in Turkey, considering the gender issue, include seasonal components or not. The monthly suicide case data from 2000 to 2016 are analysed by advanced time series techniques. While many studies have investigated this issue, there are few studies examining seasonal effects by using advanced time series techniques. In this respect, it is thought that the current study will considerably contribute to the literature. According to the findings, suicide cases include a deterministic seasonal process in Turkey. When the seasonal movements were examined, it was observed that they were stable and very close to each other. In contrast to the theoretical expectation, it was found that the series of suicide cases were additively formed in terms of seasonality. People in Turkey commit suicide mostly during spring and summer seasons. This finding supports the spring-summer summit, which corresponds in the literature. The number of suicide cases reaches the peak in June for women and in July for men. At the beginning and the end of the year, there is a decline in the number of suicide cases.

Keywords: Suicide, Seasonality, Deterministic, Census X-12


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