TR
Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2017 Say: 8 Alan: statistik-Saysal Yntemler-Ekonometri

Arzu Kkcen Eryavuz
TKYEDE KADININ LK EVLLK YAI: YAAM ANALZ
 
Bireylerden oluan topluluklar ve bu topluluklarda meydana gelen deiimleri inceleyen demografi ile toplumun temel tan oluturan aile yapsnda evliliin ncelii ve nemi byktr. Hem birey hem de genel toplum iin nemli olan evlilik, ailenin temelinin atlmasnda ilk ve nemli admdr. Gnmzde evlilik ile ilgili tartlan ve aratrlan en nemli konu kadnn evlilik yadr. Hukuki temellere dayanan iki insann bir araya gelerek evlenmesi, toplumlarn sreklilii iin gerekli olsa da, gnmzde erken evlilikler tm dnya toplumlarnda sosyal bir problem olarak karmza kmaktadr. Baz toplumlarda evlilik yann giderek dmesi ilerleyen srete bata salk ve ocuk lm olmak zere ortaya kacak sorunlarn kaynan oluturmaktadr. Bu nedenle evlilik yan etkileyen faktrlerin aratrld almalar ve gelitirilen politikalar nemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu almann amac Trkiyede kadnn ortalama ilk evlilik yan etkileyen demografik ve sosyo-ekonomik faktrlere ait etkileri ortaya koymaktr. almada Hacettepe niversitesi Nfus Ettleri Enstits tarafndan gerekletirilen 2013 Trkiye Nfus ve Salk Aratrmas (TNSA) verileri kullanlmtr. Hzlandrlm baarszlk sresi modelleri kullanlarak ilk evlilik yan etkileyen faktrlerin belirlendii almada anne ve babann eitim seviyesi ile kadnn karde says dikkat eken faktrlerdir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Evlenme, lk evlilik ya, Yaam Analizi, Kaplan-Meier, Hzlandrlm Baarszlk Sresi Modelleri, Gamma AFT Modeli


WOMENS AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE IN TURKEY: SURVIVAL ANALYSIS
 
Marriage is crucial and prior for demography which investigates groups formed by individuals and the changes occuring within groups and for family structure which is the main unit of community. Marriage is the first and foremost step in the formation of family, besides being important for the individual and also for the society. In recent studies, womens age at first marriage is the most important observed and discussed factor. Marriage of two people on legal basis is necessary for the survival of communities, but recently early marriages have become a social problem for many societies in the World. In some societies, the decrease in marriage age constitutes significant sources of problems such as health and child mortality. For this reason, studies on marriage age, contributing factors and suggestions for policy making are important. The aim of the study is to reveal the demographical and socio-economical factors determining womens mean age at first marriage. In the study, 2013 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS) data collected by Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies were used. Parents level of education and womens number of sibling are found to be significant factors in the study where accelerated failure time models were used to determine the age of womens first marriage.

Keywords: Marriage, Age at first marriage, Survival Analysis, Kaplan Meier, Accelerated failure time model, Gamma AFT Model


Detay

ÇERK