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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2017 Say: 8 Alan: statistik-Saysal Yntemler-Ekonometri

Abdurrahman KORKMAZ; Ferhat TOPBA
TRKYEDE PARA TALEBNN STKRARI ZERNE: 2006-2017 DNEMNE LKN KANITLAR
 
Bu alma, 2006-2017 dnemi boyunca Trkiye ekonomisi iin istikrarl bir para talebi fonksiyonunun mevcut olup olmadn incelemeyi amalamaktadr. almay Trkiye ekonomisine ilikin olarak daha nce yaymlanm dier almalardan ayran zellikleri u ekildedir: lk olarak, para arz tanmlar 2005 ylnn son ayndan itibaren gncellenmitir ve alma bu yeni dnemi dikkate almaktadr. kincisi, belki de en nemlisi, baz oynaklk gstergelerinin de; faiz oran oynakl ile dviz kuru oynakl; para talebinin geleneksel belirleyicileri olan reel gelir, faiz oran ve dviz kuru ile birlikte dikkate alnm olmasdr. Snr Testi ynteminin uygulanmas neticesinde, Trkiye ekonomisi iin istikrarl bir para talebi fonksiyonunun mevcut olduu sonucuna varlmtr. Sz konusu para talebi, reel gelir, dviz kuru ve dviz piyasasnda gzlenen oynakln pozitif; ancak faiz orann negatif bir fonksiyonudur. Bununla birlikte, dar kapsaml para talebinin (M1) Trkiyede para politikas uygulamasnda kontrol deikeni olmas gerektii sonucuna da varlmtr. Son olarak, Trkiyede para politikas tasarmnda dviz piyasas da kritik bir neme sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Para Talebi; Oynaklk; Snr Testi


ON THE STABILITY OF THE DEMAND FOR MONEY IN TURKEY: EVIDENCES FROM THE PERIOD 2006-2017
 
This paper aims at analysing whether there is a stable demand for money function for the Turkish economy throughout the period 2006-2017. The distinguished features of the paper over previously published ones related to the Turkish economy are as follows: Firstly, the definitions of the supply for money have been revised since the last month of 2005, and the paper focuses on the new era. Secondly, probably most importantly, some volatility measures, i.e. volatility of interest rate and volatility of exchange rate, are taken into considerations as well as conventional determinants of demand for money, such as real income, interest rate and exchange rate. Performing Bounds Testing methodology, it is determined that there is a stable demand for money function for the Turkish economy. The above-mentioned demand for money is a positive function of real income, exchange rate, and volatility in the exchange market, but negative function of the interest rate. Moreover, it is suggested that the narrow money, i.e. M1, should be considered as a control variable in practising the monetary policy in Turkey. Finally, the exchange market is a crucial importance of designing of monetary policy in Turkey as well.

Keywords: Demand for Money; Volatility; Bounds Testing


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