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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2017 Say: 7 Alan: Ekonometri

lahe ELBEYL, Nurhodja AKBULAEV
AZERBAYCANDA FISHER ETKSNN GEERLL: BR ZAMAN SERS ANALZ -1994-2015
 
Kreselleen dnyamz dviz kurlarnn nemini daha da artrmaktadr. Dviz Kurlarnn neminin artmas farkl yaklamlarn ortaya kmasna neden olmutur. Fisher Etkisi(Hipotezi) de bu yaklamlar arasnda en mehur olandr. Fisher etkisi (Hipotezi) enflasyon oran ile nominal faiz oranlar arasnda pozitif iliki olduunu aa karan yaklamdr. Bu konuda Azerbaycan rnei zerinde almalar daha nce yaplmamtr ki, bu da konunun nemini ortaya koymaktadr. almada 1994-2015 dnemine ilikin Azerbaycan ekonomisine ilikin veriler kullanlarak Fisher Etkisinin geerli olup-olmad ampirik olarak test edilmesi amalanmtr. Azerbaycanda 2006 ylnda manatn denominasyonu uyguland iin, ayn zamanda 2015 ylnda devalasyon olduu iin aratrma sonularnda sapmalar olaca hipotezinden yola karak, sonularn daha doru bir ekilde yanstlmas adna aratrma ksma ayrlmaktadr. Elde edilen verilerin saysal olarak zetlenmesi asndan Tanmlayc istatistikler,bu deikenler arasnda iliki olup-olmadn,arada iliki sz konusu ise ilikinin ynn ve gcn belirlemek iin Korelasyon analizi,bu deikenler arasndak ilikiyi belirlemek ve bu ilikiyi kullanarak konu ile ilgili tahminler ve kestirimler yapa bilmek amacyla Regresyon analizi uygulanmtr. Analiz sonucunda Azerbaycan ekonomisi iin ve ya Azerbacan ekonomisin hi bir aamasnda (Hiperenflasyon sonras,Para birimindeki deiiklikten nce ve ya sonra, devalvasyondan nce ve ya sonra)Fisher etkisinin geerli olmad ortaya kmtr.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Faiz oran, enflasyon, Fisher etkisi, Korelasyon, Analizi.


VALIDITY OF FISHER EFFECT IN AZERBAJAN :TME SERES ANALYSS-1994-2015
 
Our globalizing world is increasing the importance of exchange rates. Increasing the prevalence of exchange rates has led to different approaches. The Fisher Effect (Hypothesis) is also the most famous of these approaches. The Fisher effect (Hypothesis) is an approach that reveals a positive relationship between inflation rate and nominal interest rates. In this regard, studies on the Azerbaijani example have not been done before, which demonstrates the importance of this issue. In the study, it was aimed to test the period of 1994-2015 using empirical data related to the Azerbaijani economy as an empirical test whether the Fisher effect is valid or not. In Azerbaijan, the research is divided into three parts in order to reflect the results more accurately, due to the hypothesis that in the year of 2006 the "denomination of manat" would be devalued in the research results because it was devaluation at the same time. Descriptive statistics in terms of numerical summarization of the obtained data, Correlation analysis to determine whether there is a relationship between these variables and to determine the direction and power of the relationship, To determine the relation between these variables and to make estimations and estimations about the subject by using this relation Regression analysis was applied. As a result of the analysis, it is found that the Fisher effect is not valid for the Azerbaijani economy or at any stage of the Azerbaijani economy (after hyperinflation, before or after the change of currency, before or after Devaluation).

Keywords: Interest rate, inflation, Fisher Effect, Correlation, Analysis


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