TR
Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2017 Say: 6 Alan: statistik

Glin Durmaz, Burcu Kln Savrul
Trkiyede Vergi Gelirleri ile Enflasyon Arasindaki likinin VAR Analizi erevesinde Deerlendirilmesi
 
Vergi gelirleri ve enflasyon kavramlar arasnda iliki olup olmad, literatrde tartlan konular arasndadr. Bu almada, bu iki kavram arasndaki ilikinin ne ynde olduu ve Trkiyede elde edilen vergi gelirlerinde, dier sosyo-ekonomik faktrlerin dnda, enflasyonun pay olup olmad aratrlmaktadr. Bu nedenle vergi gelirleri ile enflasyon arasndaki iliki 2003:1-2016:10 dnemi Trkiye ekonomisine ait aylk veriler kullanlarak Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) analizleriyle incelenmitir. almada uzun dnem ilikinin aratrlmas iin Johansen ebtnleme testi, ksa dnem ilikinin aratrlmas iin hata dzeltme modeli kullanlmtr. VAR modelleri ile yaplan analiz sonularna gre iki deiken arasndaki etkileim istatistiksel olarak anlaml ve nemli dzeyde olduu tespit edilmi olup, vergi gelirleri ile enflasyon arasnda negatif bir iliki olduu sonucuna varlmtr. Granger Nedensellik Testi sonularna gre ise enflasyondan vergi gelirlerine doru tek ynl bir nedensellik ilikisi bulunmutur

Anahtar Kelimeler: Vergi gelirleri, Enflasyon, VAR Analizi, Nedensellik, Ebtnleme, Olivera Tanzi Etkisi.


Evaluation of the Relationship Between Tax Revenues and Inflation in Turkey on VAR Analysis
 
Tax revenues and inflation concepts are widely stressed subjects in the economic theory. The literature discusses whether a relationship existed or not between the two subjects with economic magnitude. This study aims to analyze the direction of the relationship between the two concepts and investigates whether inflation is significant among other socio-economic factors over income revenues collected in Turkey. For this purpose the relationship between inflation and tax revenues has been investigated by using the data of Turkish economy for the periods 2003:1-2016:10 by using Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) analysis. To investigate the long term relationship Johansen co-integration test and to find out short term relationship vector error-correction test have been used. According to the obtained results by using VAR models a significant relationship exists between the two variables and that the relationship between inflation and tax revenues has been negative. A one-way causative relationship has been found from inflation to tax revenues according to the Granger Causality Test.

Keywords: Tax Revenues, Inflation, VAR Analysis, Causality, Co-integration, Olivera Tanzi Effect.


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