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Avrasya Ekonometri �statistik ve Ampirik Ekonomi DergisiYl:2017 Say: 6 Alan: statistik

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CAR AIK VE BYME N PANEL NEDENSELLK ANALZ: KIRILGAN SEKZL LKE GRUBU RNE
 
zellikle gelimekte olan lkelerde, cari ak bir yandan ulusal ekonomilerin krlganln arttrrken dier yandan ekonomik bymenin en nemli kaynaklarndan biridir. Son yllarda cari ak ile ilgili tartmalar art gstermi, cari an lkeden lkeye farkllk gsterdii ve o lkenin ekonomisinin krlganl ve krize yatknl ile ilikili olduuna vurgu yaplmtr. Cari ilemlerin yarataca bir krlganla bal olarak lkenin bir ok karsnda finansal krize girmesi bymeyi de negatif ynl olarak etkileyeceinden cari ilemler dengesinin nemi lke ekonomileri iin byk olmaktadr. Krlganl artran temel sonu zellikle gelimekte olan lkeler iin cari ak, enflasyon ve d bor olarak sylenebilir. Buradan hareketle, krlgan sekizli lkeleri iin cari ak ve byme ilikisine ynelik Knya (2006) panel nedensellik testi uygulanm ve bymeden cari aa doru tek ynl nedensellik olduu belirlenmitir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Cari Ak, Cari lemler Dengesi, Byme, Panel Nedensellik, Knya Nedensellik Testi, Krlgan Sekizli lkeleri


PANEL CAUSAL ANALYSIS FOR CURRENT DEFICIT AND GROWTH: A CASE OF FRAGILE EIGHT COUNTRIES
 
In developing countries in particular, the current deficit is one of the most important sources of economic growth, while increasing the vulnerability of national economies. In recent years, debates about the current account deficit have increased, the current deficit has been different from country to country and the economy of that country has been associated with fragility and crime susceptibility. Due to the fragility of the current account, the risk of growth in the financial crisis in the face of a shock to the country will also negatively affect the growth of the current account, which is significant for the country's economies. The three main results that increase the vulnerability can be said as the current deficit, inflation and external debt, especially for the developing countries. From this point of view, Knya (2006) panel causality test was applied to the current deficit and growth relationship for fragile eight countries and it was determined that one-way causality from current growth to growth.

Keywords: Current Account Deficit, Current Account Balance, Growth, Panel Causality, Knya Causality Test, Fragile Eight Countries


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